Current Residential & Condo listings - 6,760 (down 1.41% from last year)
New listings taken this month - 1,546
Pending sales this month - 626 (down 29.98% from last year)
Percent of listings that sold this month - 9.26%
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘07, $352,874
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘08, $317,000
Rate of appreciation = -10.17%
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
King County Statistics - October
Current Residential & Condo listings - 14,655 (up 2.91% from last year)
New listings taken this month - 3,753
Pending sales this month - 1,727 (down 27.01% from last year)
Percent of listings that sold this month - 11.78%
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘07, $387,500
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘08, $358,500
Rate of appreciation = -7.48%
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
New listings taken this month - 3,753
Pending sales this month - 1,727 (down 27.01% from last year)
Percent of listings that sold this month - 11.78%
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘07, $387,500
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘08, $358,500
Rate of appreciation = -7.48%
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
Eastside Statistics - October
Current Residential & Condo listings - 5,299 (up 17.26% from last year)
New listings taken this month - 1,232
Pending sales this month - 473 (down 28.66% from last year)
Percent of listings that sold this month - 8.93%
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘07, $500,000
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘08, $465,000
Rate of appreciation = -7.00%
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
New listings taken this month - 1,232
Pending sales this month - 473 (down 28.66% from last year)
Percent of listings that sold this month - 8.93%
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘07, $500,000
Median closed sales price - Oct. ‘08, $465,000
Rate of appreciation = -7.00%
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
Friday, November 14, 2008
Don't Follow the Herd
In today’s market, it’s challenging to know what to do or whom to listen to. One of the most well-known and oft-quoted experts on real estate in the country is Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics, Yale University and co-founder of the S&P Case-Shiller Price Index. He said:
“My teacher in graduate school at MIT in 1970, Charles Poor Kindleberger, who later wrote Manias, Panics, and Crashes, first convinced me of the social process that drives much of what goes on in speculative markets. One needs to think antisocially to excel in investing, to resist the patterns of thinking that seem mysteriously to arrive simultaneously in the minds of millions of people around the world. People do not trust their own judgment but go along with the crowd, even when they can see the truth. In a world populated with such people, there are investing opportunities for people who will make the effort and do the work to see clearly for themselves.”
We saw what happened the last few years. When some wanted to buy, everybody wanted to buy. Now that many are scared to buy, everybody seemingly is scared to buy. This is crazy – the time to buy is when nobody wants to buy because you’ll get the best price and terms with little competition.
The truth is, our local market will pick back up and price appreciation will re-appear. Few developers are breaking ground on new projects and most are focusing on completing what they’ve already begun. This lack of new development will lead to a shortage of homes and condominiums in just a few years. Some are informally predicting a housing shortage as soon as 2010-11. If and when that happens, prices will undoubtedly rise and buyers will be once again competing with many others and unable to get the terrific concessions they can today.
Don’t follow the herd. Today just might be the best possible time to buy the home you’ve always wanted at a fire-sale price, with a great interest rate, and few competitors. What are you waiting for?
“My teacher in graduate school at MIT in 1970, Charles Poor Kindleberger, who later wrote Manias, Panics, and Crashes, first convinced me of the social process that drives much of what goes on in speculative markets. One needs to think antisocially to excel in investing, to resist the patterns of thinking that seem mysteriously to arrive simultaneously in the minds of millions of people around the world. People do not trust their own judgment but go along with the crowd, even when they can see the truth. In a world populated with such people, there are investing opportunities for people who will make the effort and do the work to see clearly for themselves.”
We saw what happened the last few years. When some wanted to buy, everybody wanted to buy. Now that many are scared to buy, everybody seemingly is scared to buy. This is crazy – the time to buy is when nobody wants to buy because you’ll get the best price and terms with little competition.
The truth is, our local market will pick back up and price appreciation will re-appear. Few developers are breaking ground on new projects and most are focusing on completing what they’ve already begun. This lack of new development will lead to a shortage of homes and condominiums in just a few years. Some are informally predicting a housing shortage as soon as 2010-11. If and when that happens, prices will undoubtedly rise and buyers will be once again competing with many others and unable to get the terrific concessions they can today.
Don’t follow the herd. Today just might be the best possible time to buy the home you’ve always wanted at a fire-sale price, with a great interest rate, and few competitors. What are you waiting for?
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Housing Activity in Western Washington during October
Housing activity for Northwest Multiple Listing Service members was disappointing last month, but not surprising, according to one industry executive. He and other representatives of the Northwest's largest MLS believe the situation is improving.
"The results we're seeing from October's homes sales were not unexpected," said Ron Sparks, managing vice president of Coldwell Banker Bain in Bellevue. He said a unique and historic combination of events has frozen many buyers. "The daily roller-coaster of events in the financial sector this past month has understandably caused a high degree of uncertainty with buyers and sellers alike, and uncertainty is not a good thing when making one of life's most important decisions," he noted.
October's pending sales fell more than 27 percent from the same month a year ago, and dropped nearly 26 percent from September. Northwest MLS members reported 4,445 pending sales of single family homes and condominiums across its 19-county market area last month. All counties reported double-digit drops.
Sparks said the added anticipation of electing a new president who will have his own ideas about how to support the housing recovery created a recipe for the market ‘suspension' this area and other markets experienced during the past month.
Others pointed to the stock market turmoil and misperceptions about the availability of mortgage loans as restraints on activity.
Listing activity also slowed during October, with members adding 9,647 new properties to inventory. The total, which included 8,129 single family homes and 1,518 condominiums, was the smallest number added to inventory since December 2007. Inventory is at its lowest level since February. At month end there were 46,189 active residential listings in the MLS system. That's down 2.5 percent from a year ago when members reported 47,381 active listings. The highest volume so far in 2008 was of 51,817, the total inventory at the end of May.
Prices followed the downturn. For October's 4,512 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums combined, the median price system-wide was $291,000, down 7.4 percent from a year ago. A comparison with September shows a 1.3 percent decline from the median selling price overall of $295,000.
Prices for completed sales of single family homes (excluding condos) fell about 9 percent last month compared with a year ago. Condominium prices dipped only 3.8 percent overall from a year ago.
Despite market volatility and shaky consumer confidence, one industry leader emphasized it's important to understand that advantageous market conditions currently exist for those who are motivated to buy. "The truth of the matter is the market conditions are ideal for first time buyers, move up buyers, and investors," said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.
Scott noted interest rates are at historic lows for conforming and FHA loans and a variety of great mortgage options are available, despite perceptions to the contrary.
The perception that "no one is lending money" is inaccurate, said NWMLS director Matt Deasy of Windermere Real Estate/East Inc. Most loans have been federalized via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but money is available, he emphasized. Deasy suggests potential buyers talk with real estate agents for referrals to good sources for mortgage loans.
"The public is waiting for a sign that all is going to be okay," remarked NWMLS director Ken Bacon of Windermere Real Estate in Redmond. Incentives are also needed, he believes. For example, Bacon said the suggested reduction in interest rates would be buyers' best stimulus, while admitting some misgivings about federal bailout programs. "The bailouts have to some extent created a different mentality for our buyers who wonder what these bailouts will do for them.
"A 1 percent or so reduction in interest rates would be viewed as a sign that they too may benefit from the bailout mentality," Bacon commented, adding, "It would open the minds of ‘waiting to see buyers' and create the first step for more buyers to pursue their dream of home ownership." He believes a reduction, or buy down, in interest rates could accelerate the stabilization and turnaround of the housing market, and is confident Seattle's market will recover, noting "only the timing is uncertain."
Sparks also commented on the mortgage market. "Our real estate market continues to be affected by lending institutions. Many banks appear to have the ability to lend, but at a time when cash reserves are so precious, lack the desire to lend. This lack of desire is very apparent when you see how mortgage interest rates have increased steadily over the last 30 days," he stated.
(According HSH® Associates, the nation's largest publisher of mortgage and consumer loan information, the rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage for the week ending 10/31/08 was 7.05 percent; a year ago it was 6.73 percent.)
NWMLS leaders agreed consumer confidence will take time to rebuild, but are optimistic.
"Thankfully, we now see tangible housing and lending programs being initiated, with many more on the horizon," said Sparks. "Interest rates are softening. We appear to be moving in a positive direction again!"
Lennox Scott reported having the opportunity to listen to several economists recently, including Lawrence Yun from the National Association of Realtors®. "I feel good about what I'm hearing. The bottom line is that the situation is manageable and things will improve," he remarked, adding, "Despite the uncertainty of the financial markets, homeownership continues to be one of the most solid investments an individual or family can make."
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
"The results we're seeing from October's homes sales were not unexpected," said Ron Sparks, managing vice president of Coldwell Banker Bain in Bellevue. He said a unique and historic combination of events has frozen many buyers. "The daily roller-coaster of events in the financial sector this past month has understandably caused a high degree of uncertainty with buyers and sellers alike, and uncertainty is not a good thing when making one of life's most important decisions," he noted.
October's pending sales fell more than 27 percent from the same month a year ago, and dropped nearly 26 percent from September. Northwest MLS members reported 4,445 pending sales of single family homes and condominiums across its 19-county market area last month. All counties reported double-digit drops.
Sparks said the added anticipation of electing a new president who will have his own ideas about how to support the housing recovery created a recipe for the market ‘suspension' this area and other markets experienced during the past month.
Others pointed to the stock market turmoil and misperceptions about the availability of mortgage loans as restraints on activity.
Listing activity also slowed during October, with members adding 9,647 new properties to inventory. The total, which included 8,129 single family homes and 1,518 condominiums, was the smallest number added to inventory since December 2007. Inventory is at its lowest level since February. At month end there were 46,189 active residential listings in the MLS system. That's down 2.5 percent from a year ago when members reported 47,381 active listings. The highest volume so far in 2008 was of 51,817, the total inventory at the end of May.
Prices followed the downturn. For October's 4,512 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums combined, the median price system-wide was $291,000, down 7.4 percent from a year ago. A comparison with September shows a 1.3 percent decline from the median selling price overall of $295,000.
Prices for completed sales of single family homes (excluding condos) fell about 9 percent last month compared with a year ago. Condominium prices dipped only 3.8 percent overall from a year ago.
Despite market volatility and shaky consumer confidence, one industry leader emphasized it's important to understand that advantageous market conditions currently exist for those who are motivated to buy. "The truth of the matter is the market conditions are ideal for first time buyers, move up buyers, and investors," said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.
Scott noted interest rates are at historic lows for conforming and FHA loans and a variety of great mortgage options are available, despite perceptions to the contrary.
The perception that "no one is lending money" is inaccurate, said NWMLS director Matt Deasy of Windermere Real Estate/East Inc. Most loans have been federalized via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but money is available, he emphasized. Deasy suggests potential buyers talk with real estate agents for referrals to good sources for mortgage loans.
"The public is waiting for a sign that all is going to be okay," remarked NWMLS director Ken Bacon of Windermere Real Estate in Redmond. Incentives are also needed, he believes. For example, Bacon said the suggested reduction in interest rates would be buyers' best stimulus, while admitting some misgivings about federal bailout programs. "The bailouts have to some extent created a different mentality for our buyers who wonder what these bailouts will do for them.
"A 1 percent or so reduction in interest rates would be viewed as a sign that they too may benefit from the bailout mentality," Bacon commented, adding, "It would open the minds of ‘waiting to see buyers' and create the first step for more buyers to pursue their dream of home ownership." He believes a reduction, or buy down, in interest rates could accelerate the stabilization and turnaround of the housing market, and is confident Seattle's market will recover, noting "only the timing is uncertain."
Sparks also commented on the mortgage market. "Our real estate market continues to be affected by lending institutions. Many banks appear to have the ability to lend, but at a time when cash reserves are so precious, lack the desire to lend. This lack of desire is very apparent when you see how mortgage interest rates have increased steadily over the last 30 days," he stated.
(According HSH® Associates, the nation's largest publisher of mortgage and consumer loan information, the rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage for the week ending 10/31/08 was 7.05 percent; a year ago it was 6.73 percent.)
NWMLS leaders agreed consumer confidence will take time to rebuild, but are optimistic.
"Thankfully, we now see tangible housing and lending programs being initiated, with many more on the horizon," said Sparks. "Interest rates are softening. We appear to be moving in a positive direction again!"
Lennox Scott reported having the opportunity to listen to several economists recently, including Lawrence Yun from the National Association of Realtors®. "I feel good about what I'm hearing. The bottom line is that the situation is manageable and things will improve," he remarked, adding, "Despite the uncertainty of the financial markets, homeownership continues to be one of the most solid investments an individual or family can make."
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
