Monday, March 15, 2010
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Monday, March 8, 2010
National Real Estate News
Last week's one housing report gave us the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales index, down 7.6% for January. Year over year, the NAR index is up 12.3%. Also, it's now at 90.4 and a score of 100 equals the average level of contract activity for 2001, the base year, when activity was at a then record high. Pending sales are still in pretty good territory.
Meanwhile, a quarterly report from a builders group and a major bank revealed that home prices are at near record levels of affordability. In the last three months of 2009, a family making the median income of $64,000 a year could afford to buy 70.8% of all homes sold during that time! According to this report, a home is affordable if a family making the metro area's median income would have to spend no more than 28% of their take-home pay for housing. Of course, there are variations in affordability around the US, but this is a great overall trend.
Buyers, however, shouldn't expect great affordability to last forever. According to a Freddie Mac index, in the last quarter of 2009 four out of nine regions showed home price gains! The NAR's monthly market forecast, out last Thursday, projected the median price of existing homes UP 2.8% for 2010 with the new home median price UP 2.0%. In addition, no one knows what will happen to mortgage rates once the Fed stops buying mortgage bonds at the end of this month. Smart buyers shouldn't drag their feet, especially those wanting the tax credit, which requires a signed contract by April 30.
~ Courtesy of Chuck Chrobak, Golf Savings Bank, 425.330.9657, CChrobak@GolfSavingsBank.com
Eastside Statistics - February, 2010
New listings taken this month - 1,303
Pending sales this month - 835 (up 93.74% from last year)
Percent of listings that sold this month - 21.17%
Median closed sales price - Feb. ‘09, $435,000
Median closed sales price - Feb. ‘10, $437,500
Rate of appreciation = 0.57%
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
King County Statistics - February, 2010
Current Residential & Condo listings - 11,539 (down 9.76% from last year)
New listings taken this month - 4,122
Pending sales this month - 2,621 (up 62.69% from last year)
Percent of listings that sold this month - 22.71%
Median closed sales price - Feb. ‘09, $348,000
Median closed sales price - Feb. ‘10, $343,500
Rate of appreciation = -1.29%
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
Snohomish County Statistics - February, 2010
New listings taken this month - 1,759
Pending sales this month - 1,133 (up 70.89% from last year)
Percent of listings that sold this month - 21.89%
Median closed sales price - Feb. ‘09, $301,750
Median closed sales price - Feb. ‘10, $269,000
Rate of appreciation = -10.85%
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
Northwest MLS brokers say housing market in Washington State indicates recovery
"We are entering what is traditionally our busiest home selling season," said NWMLS director OB Jacobi, general manager of Windermere Real Estate Company. "With the first job increase since 2008 and closed sales in King County up about 45 percent, there is every indication that our market is in recovery," he added. Jacobi reported "significant traffic" at open houses, which he attributes to the first-time homebuyer tax credit and rising consumer confidence.
Pending sales (offers made and accepted, but not yet closed) jumped nearly 45 percent last month compared to a year ago, marking the 11th straight month of month-over-month increases. Twelve of the 21 counties in the MLS market area reported double-digit gains in pending sales, led by San Juan County (up 85.7 percent), Snohomish County (up nearly 71 percent) and King County (up nearly 63 percent).
Closed sales also outperformed year-ago totals, rising 33.5 percent. Members tallied 3,214 completed transactions last month, up from the 2,407 closed sales for February 2009.
Prices, while showing signs of stabilizing, still lagged year-ago figures. Area-wide, the median price for last month’s closed sales of single family homes and condominiums (combined) was $260,000, down about 6.5 percent from a year ago. The median price for single family homes (excluding condos) dipped 4.6 percent, while condo prices declined nearly 9 percent.
In the four-county Puget Sound region, the median price for single family homes that sold and closed last month was $297,000, down about 2.6 percent from the year-ago figure of $305,000. Condo prices in the area fell 7.7 percent, from the year-ago selling price of $253,000 to $233,500 for last month’s sales.
MLS members added 10,663 new listings to inventory last month, bringing the total number of active listings in the system to 36,350. That total is down 7.5 percent from the same month a year ago, creating a more balanced market that favors neither buyers nor sellers.
Move-up buyers are accounting for some of the surge in activity. Brokers credit the combination of a $6,500 tax incentive for qualified repeat buyers and thawing jumbo loan market as factors in spurring activity for this segment.
"Over the past 90 days there has been a buildup of positive momentum in the housing market and we continue to see evidence that the tax credit extension/expansion is working," remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, Inc.
Scott noted higher priced areas, such as Mercer Island, Redmond, and Issaquah, are seeing an uptick in home sales – suggesting more move-up buyers are engaging in the market. "Historically low interest rates continue to be a motivating factor which when combined with the tax credit give buyers a significant purchasing power advantage," he commented.
Interest rates on jumbo loans (more than $567,500 in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties) fell to 5.79 percent on a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the past few weeks. That’s a five-year low, according to Informa Research Services, whose clients include the nation’s top 25 banks.
Noting the peak real estate season is approaching, MLS director Meribeth Hutchings, pointed to several encouraging signs. "Homes are more affordable, mortgage rates are at all-time lows, and employment in the state appears to be on the rise," said Hutchings, the broker at Windermere Real Estate/Lake Stevens. "All signs point to a strong spring," she added.
Earlier in the week, the state Employment Security Department reported the state’s economy "picked up some steam in January," adding an estimated 12,400 jobs – the first monthly gain since November 2008.
NWMLS Dick Beeson, broker/owner of Windermere Real Estate/Commencement Associates in Tacoma, attributes the lift in activity to lower prices and a hopeful jobs picture. He said the price point of new listings in some areas is 10-to-15 percent lower than the asking price of new listings added at this time a year ago, which is opening up opportunities for more buyers.
"The plethora of shorts sales and foreclosures has diluted the price point of many homes that are selling, making appraisals more challenging," Beeson reported. He believes the tax credit has "helped only marginally." The real potential of a recovered housing market, according to Beeson, will come with new employment for many displaced workers. Recent employment gains and reports of rising consumer confidence are encouraging, he noted.
"We can see and hear the rumblings of pent-up demand from buyers," Beeson commented, adding he expects spring and summer sales to outpace last year because there are such good price values in the market. He said they are reminding buyers of the possibility of rising mortgage interest rates due to the Federal Reserve’s plan to stop buying mortgages by the end of March.
~ Courtesy of NWMLS
Monday, March 1, 2010
National Real Estate News
New home sales fell 11.2% in January to a record low level. Existing home sales weren't very pretty either, down 7.2%, though they're UP 11.5% over a year ago. Let's remember that last Fall we all thought the tax credit was going away at the end of November. Many sales got pushed into October and November, causing sales drops the next two months. The median new home price is down just 2.4% year over year and the average price is now UP 3.7%. For an existing home, the median price is unchanged from a year ago and the average price is UP 2.6%. More evidence home prices are stabilizing, with some analysts expecting modest gains for the year. Supporting this, the Case-Shiller home price index was UP 0.3% in December, its seventh straight monthly rise.
Even more interesting was the news that this has actually been a very good decade for home prices. From January 2000 to December 2009, prices were UP 46%, making residential real estate a clearly profitable investment. That's not even factoring in the mortgage interest and real estate tax deductions homeowners get!
Finally, we've reported that the Fed will stop buying mortgage bonds at the end of this month and experts feared rates may edge up. Now analysts say mortgage rates might not move much at all. This stems from the fairly calm market reaction to last week's hike of the Fed's discount lending rate (which is NOT the key Fed funds rate). Seeing little or no move in today's low mortgage rates is good news for the near term.
~ Courtesy of Chuck Chrobak, Golf Savings Bank, 425.330.9657, CChrobak@GolfSavingsBank.com

